Base Metals Dashboard - Week Ending December 13, 2024

Base metals mostly traded lower this week as demand in China continues to disapoint, despite hopes for stronger stimulus, investors were left disapointed by China's latest measures. However, China's Politburo did say that 2025 will mark a shift toward looser monetary conditions for the first time in over a decade.

Aluminum

Aluminum prices continue to trade in a range between $2,550 and $2,700/ton, as they have since early October. Alumina prices moved lower this week after reaching a new all-time high recently, driven by supply disruptions in China and Australia and a stoppage of bauxite exports from Guinea.

Copper

Copper traded lower this week as demand in China continues to disappoint, and stimulus measures do not appear to be supporting consumption yet. Economic data from the US did, however, raise expectations for an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting.

Other Important LME and CME Metals & Markets

Iron ore continued to slump this week, with the commodity down about 25% this year. Weak demand for steel has heavily impacted steel and iron ore prices lately.

LME Aluminum

LME Aluminum 3M settled at $2,649.50/mt, up $29/mt on the week.

Aluminum prices were down this week. The futures forward curve remains in a contango, meaning nearby prices are lower than forward prices. Aluminum consumers concerned about increasing prices might consider hedging future needs by buying swaps or call options. Depending on risk tolerance, end-users might consider strategies that use only swaps or options or a combination of both. The aluminum market has sufficient liquidity to use swaps and options. Please get in touch with AEGIS for specific strategies that fit your operations.

Midwest Premium

Prompt month CME MWP last traded/settled at 21.7¢/lb this week.

The CME Midwest Premium market is now in a contango from the November‘24 contract on forward. The CME Midwest Premium swap market is thinly traded, with no options market. Hedging in this thinly traded market is challenging, so we recommend using limit orders. Please get in touch with AEGIS for specific strategies that fit your operations.

* Please note all these charts are for desktop only. *

LME Copper

LME Copper 3M settled at $9,002.50/mt, down 441/mt on the week.

Compared to last Friday, LME Copper's forward curve has shifted vertically lower and is in contango throughout 2024 and early 2025. The copper market has sufficient liquidity to use swaps and options. Depending on their risk tolerance, consumers might consider strategies that use only swaps, options, or a combination of both. Please get in touch with AEGIS for specific strategies that fit your operations.

LME Nickel

LME Nickel 3M settled at $15,540/mt, down $857/mt on the week.

As prices were down this week, nickel’s forward curve also modestly shifted lower. It remains in a steep contango, meaning that nearby prices are lower than futures prices. The nickel market has sufficient liquidity to use swaps and options. Depending upon your risk tolerance, consumers might consider strategies that use only swaps or options or a combination of both. Please get in touch with AEGIS for specific strategies that fit your operations.