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First Look - CITI sees oil prices falling under Trump | Biden rushing study that threatens to slow Trump's LNG plans

Oil trades slightly lower as traders continue to weigh the impacts of the US election
- The US dollar posted its largest gain since September 2022 following the election of Donald Trump
- New trade tariffs on China could further hinder growth of the country’s economy which has consistently been under pressure this year
- US jobless claims rose by 3k to 221k, slightly lower than economists expected
CITI sees oil prices falling under Trump
- Citi analysts predict Brent crude prices may average $60 per barrel next year due to Trump's energy policies, including import tariffs and increased production
- Potential second Trump term has an ambiguous impact on prices, with short-term downside risk
- Trump's influence on OPEC+ could bring supply back, while the process for obtaining federal leases domestically may be eased
Vitol says oil looks slightly bearish in 2025, but it may be too early to tell (BBG)
- Non-OPEC supply growth and weak Chinese demand may weaken oil prices next year, according to physical trader Vitol
- Vitol’s Russel Hardy said that a range of prices between $70 and $80/Bbl is not unreasonable
- Still, Vitol cautioned that geopolitical uncertainty could make expectations of oversupply misplaced

Gas trades lower ahead of storage report
- Prompt gas was 2.6c lower to $2.721/MMBtu (As of 7:45 AM)
- Winter ‘24/’25 strip is down 2.9c to $2.780, and the Summer ’25 strip is down 2.3c to $2.916
- Today’s 00z forecast shows a 7.8-F temp drop in the 1-10 day range, especially in the Northeast, with the European Ensemble maintaining a cooler two-week trend, moderating in the 11-15 day period (Criterion)
  - Hurricane Rafael has shut in 304 Mbbl/d of oil (17.4% of Gulf production) and 131 MMcf/d of gas (7.04%) as personnel evacuate from 11 production platforms and one rig relocates from the storm’s path
Biden rushing study that threatens to slow Trump’s LNG plans (Bloomberg)
- Biden administration is finalizing a study on the climate, economic, and security impacts of expanding US LNG exports, potentially complicating Trump’s plans to approve new LNG terminals immediately
- The study, which began in January, could introduce legal challenges to LNG projects if it finds increased exports not in the public interest; Biden also placed a moratorium on new LNG export licenses, which Trump has vowed to lift
- Trump’s win spurred market optimism for US LNG expansion, boosting shares in companies like Cheniere (up 2.8%), NextDecade (up 15%), and Sempra (up 7.3%)
- Nearly two dozen export projects are backlogged, and negative findings in the study could slow Trump’s plans despite anticipated attempts to increase LNG exports