Market Insights > First Look

First Look - Oil prices steady as tariff worries and OPEC+ output offset Iranian sanctions support

Oil prices remained stable on Monday, weighed down by concerns about the impact of U.S. tariff uncertainty
- WTI for April delivery was up 0.68% at $67.50 (7:45 AM CT)
- Trump stated that the US would impose additional sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine
  - The US is also exploring options to ease sanctions on Russia’s energy sector if the country agrees to end its war with Ukraine (Reuters)
- China's consumer inflation dropped more than expected, turning negative for the first time in 13 months, signaling ongoing deflationary pressures in the world's largest crude importer
Crude oil has been negatively impacted by a combination of factors, including the worsening global trade war, OPEC+ plans to increase production, and negotiations for a potential end to the war in Ukraine
- This has led speculators to reduce their net-bullish positions on Brent crude by the largest amount since July (Bloomberg)
- Hedge funds have reduced their long positions in WTI crude as well, with many Wall Street firms predicting lower oil prices this year

Natural gas is trading higher by 17c after trading up as much as 50c overnight
- The April NYMEX contract opened at $4.899 on Sunday night when futures began trading for the week
  - Prices have relaxed to around $4.50/MMbtu but remain higher than Friday’s settlement
- Options volatility and call-put skew has jumped significantly
- Venture Global reported in their latest earnings presentation that Plaquemines LNG is operating at 140% of nameplate capacity, with the 18-block terminal now having FERC approval to export 201 MMcf/d per block
- Calcasieu Pass LNG is now operating near its maximum capacity after almost one year of flows being reduced by about 500 MMcf/d
Speculators boost net-long positions to four-year high (BBG)
- According to data from the CFTC through last Tuesday, managed money participants added additional net length, putting their total position at a four-year high
- The managed money category had been net-short for most of 2024 but flipped to a net bullish position in January of this year
- This category of trader is often made up of trend-following CTAs who add to positions as trends continue