- The WTI April contract fell 31 cents to $67.37 on Thursday morning
- Last week, oil contracts reached their lowest levels in years, and implied volatility for WTI options surged to its highest point since January (Bloomberg)
- Market sentiment is becoming more bearish, with a broader downturn along the futures curve fueling increased trading of options that anticipate a weakening market, especially for Cal 2026
- Volatility is rising due to broader instability in global financial markets, driven by recession concerns
- The IEA has revised down its growth forecast for global oil consumption this year, citing slower oil deliveries in recent months
- The IEA has reduced its consumption growth projection by about 100 MBbl/d, bringing the expected growth to approximately 1 MMBbl/d
- Trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries have worsened macroeconomic conditions, hindering stable growth
- The agency forecasts a 600 MBbl/d surplus in 2025, which could increase by another 400 MBbl/d following OPEC+'s recent announcement
- Chinese buyers are returning to the Russian crude market.
- Prices for Russia’s ESPO crude have dropped, as shippers and intermediaries find ways to bypass U.S. sanctions
- The lower prices offer relief to small independent Chinese refiners, who have faced tighter margins due to U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil flows
- Russia’s crude shipments to China are expected to reach 1.15 MMBbl/d this month, marking a 16% increase from February and the highest daily volume since December, with ESPO crude making up the largest portion (Kpler)
- Last week, oil contracts reached their lowest levels in years, and implied volatility for WTI options surged to its highest point since January (Bloomberg)
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