Market Insights > First Look

First Look - Natural gas trades near two-week low

Oil prices steady to start the week, up 37c to $68.65/Bbl Monday morning (7:45 AM CT)
- Market sentiment remains volatile amid escalating global trade wars
- Crude futures are down over 10% from their mid-January peak (Bloomberg)
NYMEX diesel positions turn bearish (Bloomberg)
- Money managers flipped to a net bearish stance on NYMEX diesel for the first time in seven weeks
- Net-long Brent positions increased by 53k lots to 206k lots last week, ending six consecutive weeks of declines—marking the largest weekly gain since October 8
- Canada’s WCS crude extended its rally, hitting its strongest level since January 2023
White House proposes new fees on Chinese-built ships
- A US trade measure could levy up to $1 million per Chinese-built ship docking at US ports
- The US Trade Representative is also suggesting broader service fees and increasing restrictions on maritime transport of US goods
- The proposal targets China’s growing dominance in global shipbuilding, which rose from under 5% market share in 1999 to over 50% in 2023 (USTR)

Natural gas is down this morning, near a two-week low
- The April Henry Hub contract is down about 4c to $3.95/MMbtu after falling 15c last week (8:10 AM)
- Weather forecasts shifted significantly warmer over the weekend, with temperatures forecast to be mostly above the ten-year average for the next two weeks
  - Demand should be limited over the next two weeks, with storage operators beginning to inject gas
- LNG feedgas demand is slightly lower today after reaching a new all-time high of 17.08 Bcf/d late last week
Speculators cut long positions (BBG)
- According to CFTC data through last Tuesday, managed money participants in Henry Hub futures cut their net-long position by 26k contracts
- While speculators have reduced the number of contracts held over the past two weeks, the total net-long position is still near the highest level since 2021