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First Look - Crude nears $70/Bbl as trade tensions rise

WTI prompt-month futures are up 4c to $69.96/Bbl, nearing the $70 mark once again (7:45 AM CT)
- Crude is on track for a third consecutive weekly gain as markets brace for new tariffs from the Trump administration
- Upcoming US measures may include auto import tariffs and reciprocal trade penalties, signaling escalating global trade tensions
Venezuelan Crude Flows Surge to China (Bloomberg)
- Venezuela is ramping up oil exports to China to 400 MBbl/d this month, the highest level since 2023
- The increase comes despite intensifying US efforts to pressure Venezuela’s oil sector, including 25% tariffs on imports from countries buying Venezuelan crude
- China continues to purchase Venezuelan oil through intermediaries and by using tactics like “spoofing” vessel tracking systems to evade sanctions
Gasoline Futures Show Strength (Bloomberg)
- NYMEX gasoline prices rallied to their highest level since late February
- The gasoline crack spread also reached its strongest point since February, signaling firm demand or tightening supply in refined products

Natural gas is trading slightly lower with May now the prompt month
- The April NYMEX contract expired yesterday at $3.95/MMbtu, making May the prompt month contract
- Demand is expected to remain limited over the next two weeks
- According to data from S&P, gas production is lower, around 104.9 Bcf/d, the lowest level seen in a few weeks
The EIA reports a 37 Bcf build in inventories
- Marking the second storage injection of 2025, the EIA reported inventories rose to 1,744 Bcf, or 122 Bcf below the five-year average
- The injection season started earlier than usual this year, driven by warmer-than-average weather this March
- All EIA storage regions remain below the five-year average except for the Rockies and Pacific regions