The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.78 to $61.93/Bbl on Wednesday morning (7:45 AM CT), reaching the highest level since October
Prices are climbing as traders monitor the US response to escalating political turmoil in Iran
Some US personnel have been advised to leave an airbase in Qatar (Bloomberg).
The National Security Council met with President Trump on Tuesday to outline response options (Washington Post)
The potential for conflict has boosted geopolitical premiums given Iran’s ~3.3 MMBbl/d of crude output
The American Petroleum Institute reported a 5.3 MMBbl crude build last week; official EIA data will be released later today
European Oil Market Strengthens on Barrel Shortage (Bloomberg)
The oil market in Europe is strengthening sharply due to reduced shipments from Kazakhstan as well as Libya and North Sea fields, tightening supply
Reduced flows of certain crude grades have pushed up physical prices in the North Sea and Mediterranean, with some grades reaching one-year highs
The forwards curve of North Sea swaps is in backwardation, suggesting near term supply is tight
Natural gas reverses gains, as selloff resumes
The February Henry Hub contract is down more than 20c this morning, trading near recent lows (8:15 AM)
The near-term demand outlook has improved slightly this week, with temperatures forecast to be slightly below the ten-year average for much of the next two weeks
EIA cuts Henry Hub forecast (NGI)
EIA has revised its natural gas price outlook, predicting lower prices this winter due to mild weather
Price strength is expected to return in 2027 with rising LNG exports
The EIA forecasts Henry Hub prices to average $3.56/MMbtu for this winter, down from $4.30/MMbtu, and $4.59/MMbtu for 2027
Waha basis prices remain weak (S&P)
According to Platts data, cash prices in West Texas have been consistently below zero this month
The weakness comes despite an improvement in egress capacity, after the 500 MMcf/d Matterhorn Express expansion started flowing gas in Q4 2025
Low demand is likely contributing to the price weakness
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