The WTI prompt-month contract rose $1.96 to $65.17/Bbl on Thursday morning (7:30 AM CT)
President Trump stated the US naval fleet heading to the region is “ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary.”
Strikes by the US could potentially impede flows from the Middle East which accounts for about a third of total global supply
The Iranian government has said it is ready to engage in a dialogue based on mutual respect but warned that “IF PUSHED, IT WILL DEFEND ITSELF AND RESPOND LIKE NEVER BEFORE,”
Bullish call options have traded at a premium to bearish puts for the longest period in roughly 14 months as traders brace for a potential conflict (Bloomberg)
Bullish option positioning has also increased at the fastest pace in at least six years
OPEC+ to keep supply pause in place
The group is currently on track to stick with Q1 supply pauses despite the recent surge in crude prices
The eight countries subject to quotas will meet over the weekend and review their supply policy for the month of March
Natural gas March contract up 13c to $3.841/MMBtu on contract roll
The February contract settled at $7.46/MMBtu, with March now assuming prompt-month status
Weather models continue to trend warmer for the first half of February, particularly across the Midwest, South Central, and Western regions
Northeast and Southeast forecasts continue to show persistent cold temperatures
While February temperature forecasts warmed by roughly 0.5°F overnight, the Lower 48 remains around 5°F below the 10-year average HDDs have retreated from peak levels but remain elevated over the next two weeks
The EIA will release its weekly natural gas storage report today, with the Bloomberg survey indicating a median expectation of a 238 Bcf withdrawal
Next week’s report is expected to show a significantly larger withdrawal exceeding 300 Bcf
US LNG feedgas demand remains pressured (S&P)
Feedgas demand rose to 19.2 Bcf/d this morning, up from 18.6 Bcf/d yesterday
Georgia’s Elba Island LNG terminal and the Cove Point facility in Maryland redirected gas to the domestic market as prices surged and production slowed
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