The WTI prompt-month contract dropped $3.34 to $61.87/Bbl by Monday morning (7:30 AM CT)
Prices fell sharply as markets backed out geopolitical risk after President Trump said the US is engaged in talks with Iran
Trump dismissed weekend rhetoric from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saying he remains optimistic a deal can be reached
Iran’s foreign ministry echoed a more conciliatory tone, with state-affiliated media indicating discussions between Washington and Tehran could take place in the coming days
With no immediate supply disruption emerging, crude is giving back previously priced-in risk as the market recalibrates following last week’s escalation fears
OPEC+ maintains supply pause (Bloomberg)
OPEC+ confirmed it will hold output steady in March, extending the final month of its three-month supply freeze despite prices recently reaching four-month highs
The group deferred decisions on post-Q1 production policy to its next meeting on March 1
Natural gas prompt month price is down 79c this morning to $3.566/MMBtu (7:42 AM CT)
Weather models moved significantly warmer, erasing 97.3 Bcf of demand over the next two weeks compared to the Friday model (Criterion)
Lower 48 temperatures have risen 29.8°F over the weekend, one of the largest swing on record
While we will see cold sustained through this week, the mid-month temperature pattern is now looking in line with the 10-YR average
Gas production is back at 109.5 Bcf/d, adding 1.8 Bcf/d, spurred on by gains in Early Cycle nominations in the South Central region
Lower 48 gas output stands 6 Bcf/d higher than last weeks average
Appalachian gas production is still depressed at 34 Bcf/d, as temps fall below -10 °F
LNG feedgas noms open this morning at 18.9 Bcf/d, returning towards the 19.5-20 Bcf/d levels
LNG feedgas demand continues to lag in the northeast and east coast regions
Elba facility is still only pulling 15 MMcf/d
Plaquemines is still running 500 MMcf/d below its two week week high, at 3.8 Bcf/d (Criterion)
Further flows are from Corpus Stage 3 Train 5 and Golden Pass LNG Train 1 in March are expected to account for a rising feedgas demand over the next week, and month
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