Crude rebounds as traders reassess geopolitical signals
The WTI prompt-month contract rose $0.34 to $62.48/Bbl by Tuesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
President Trump said talks with Iran on a potential nuclear agreement could begin within days, following signals from Tehran that it is open to engagement
Iranian media reported that a US carrier strike group in the region had moved farther away from Iran toward Yemen
Separately, Trump said he would roll back tariffs on India in exchange for an agreement under which Prime Minister Modi would halt purchases of Russian crude
Shipments of Russian oil to Indian ports have fallen toward their lowest levels in more than three years, adding to a growing backlog of unsold sanctioned barrels globally (Bloomberg)
OPEC+ points to firmer spring demand
OPEC+ expects global oil demand to begin rising gradually from March or April, helping improve market balance, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
Over the weekend, the group reaffirmed plans to keep crude production steady in March
Natural gas prompt month is up 2.4c to $3.261/MMBtu (7:45 AM CDT)
Forcasted demand continues to trend lower this morning with weather models continuing to predict major warming
Forecasted average temperatures rose another 2.5°F according to the Euro Ens weather model
This warming was centered on the 11-15 day range, primarily in all L48 regions excluding the Rockies and West coast
Average temperatures will be at or above the 10 YR Average starting late next week
There were further production gains of 300 MMcf/d this morning to 109.4 Bcf/d
This is roughly in line with the average production last month of 109.2 Bcf/d, and above Feb ’25 production of 105.4 Bcf/d
The production increase is offset by Canadian imports falling 900 MMcf/d to 7.3 Bcf/d
LNG feedgas sees broad underperformance, losing -61 MMcf/d to 18.8 Bcf/d (Criterion)
The underperformance was centered around the Gulf Coast Fleet, with Plaqumines, Corpus, and Calcasieu Pass losing a combined -226 MMcf/d of feedgas demand since yesterday
These losses were partially offset by gains at east coast LNG facilities, specifically Elba and Cove point
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