The WTI prompt-month contract climbed $0.71 to $67.02/Bbl as of Tuesday morning (7:30 AM CT)
President Trump dismissed suggestions that the Pentagon is wary of a prolonged conflict with Iran, reiterating that a negotiated agreement remains his preferred outcome
US and Iranian officials are scheduled to resume talks Thursday, with Trump’s special envoy traveling to Geneva for discussions with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
Polymarket pricing currently implies a 62% probability of a US strike on Iran before the end of March
Escalating geopolitical risk, combined with earlier supply interruptions this year, has eased concerns that a significant surplus would weigh on prices heading into 2026
Diamondback CEO Kaes Van’t Hof echoed that sentiment, noting that concerns over a looming crude glut have so far failed to materialize and appear to be diminishing
However, the EIA’s forward balance still implies an average 3.1 MMBbl/d surplus in 2026, according to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook
Natural gas trades lower, with March below $3/MMBtu
Outside of a cold front early next week, Lower-48 population-weighted average temperatures are mostly forecast to be around the ten-year average
Demand should continue to trend lower as the shoulder season approaches
Dry gas production has turned lower in recent days, with output at 107.3 Bcf/d this morning, compared to 109.5 Bcf/d last week
Golden Pass LNG continues taking gas, with inflows at 178 MMcf/d this morning, and 297 MMcf/d yesterday
Train 1 will continue to startup over the next month, rising to 790 MMcf/d, while Trains 2 and 3 start up later this year
Surging gas demand in the Upper Midwest has led DT Midstream to increase its five-year project backlog by 50% and sanction two new expansion projects
The company sees up to 13 Bcf/d of new gas demand in the Midwest over the next decade, with a more realistic path being 5-8 Bcf/d
Coal retirements and data center construction are expected to drive most of the demand gains
There have been several pipeline expansions announced for the Midwest region over the past year, as developers look to expand supply around the Chicago area and into Wisconsin
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