- Retail regular gasoline prices fell by 30c in the last four weeks to $3.576/Gal. About 50% of the change was due to the price of crude oil, while the remainder was the refinery margin
- Scroll down for a chart of the RBOB-WTI crack spread, a measure of refinery margin. It shows elevated cracks this year
- Total motor gasoline inventories fell by 1.3 MMBbl for the week ending October 6 and are about 1% above the five-year average for this time of year
- As fuel weakness mounts, US gasoline pump prices and margins see sharp decline (Bloomberg)
- Retail gasoline prices in the US have fallen for 18 days straight to their lowest since July at $3.576
- Despite a 0.57 MMBbl/d uptick in demand last week, gasoline demand (total product supplied) is seasonally low
- Additionally, institutional investors are showing caution by reducing net-long positions, with Nymex gasoline net length falling by 15k through Oct. 10 to a three-year low
- Furthermore, gasoline refining margins, which were at over $40/Bbl in August, have declined to below $10/Bbl, the lowest since 2020
- The decline in margins highlights the weakness in the gasoline market that had been weighing on crude prices even before the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict
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- Retail diesel prices fell by 12.7c in the last four weeks to $4.444/Gal. About 44% of the change was due to the price of crude oil, while the remainder was the refinery margin
- Scroll down for a chart of the NY Harbor ULSD-WTI crack spread, a measure of refinery margin. It shows elevated cracks this year
- Distillate fuel inventories fell by 1.8 MMBbl for the week ending October 6 and are about 11% below the five-year average for this time of year
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